Experts from the Committee on Agrarian and Land Policy have summarized Ukraine’s export performance in 2024 and predicted possible changes in trade conditions with the European Union.
Last year, Ukraine actively increased its foreign trade volumes in agricultural products, demonstrating growth in both exports and imports. However, specialists emphasize that it is already necessary to take measures to maintain the preferential trade regime with the EU beyond June 5, 2025.
In 2024, agri-food products accounted for 60% of Ukraine’s total exports. Although this figure was slightly lower than the record 62% in 2023, it remains the second highest in the country’s history of independence.
A key trend of the past year was the simultaneous increase in both agricultural exports and imports.
According to the State Customs Service, the total trade turnover of agri-food products in 2024 reached $32.66 billion, which is 11.5% more than the previous year. Exports grew by 12.1%, reaching $24.84 billion, while imports rose by 9.7%, totaling $7.82 billion.
Despite the ongoing war, Ukraine managed to expand its agricultural exports, largely thanks to the stable operation of the maritime corridor. Through this route, approximately 60 million tons of agricultural products were shipped.
However, according to experts from the Institute of Agrarian Economics, Ukraine’s agricultural business may face significant challenges in foreign trade in 2025. The main risk is a potential change in trade conditions with the EU and possible restrictions on the preferential trade regime.
Currently, negotiations are underway in the EU regarding a revision of trade rules with Ukraine. According to available information, the European Commission does not intend to extend the special trade regime beyond June 5, 2025, which was introduced in 2022 to support Ukraine’s economy. However, this does not imply a return to the trade conditions that existed before the full-scale invasion.
One of the options under consideration is revising cooperation within the framework of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). This may include the introduction of quotas for certain types of agricultural products and additional protective mechanisms, which could facilitate Ukraine’s further integration into the EU single market.
According to European Commissioner for Agriculture Christophe Hansen, most EU agriculture ministers support a more stable DCFTA agreement rather than extending the current regime. The focus is on establishing clear export and import quotas.
Negotiations between Ukraine and the European Commission have already begun, but they are currently at a technical level. The main round of discussions, which will determine the future trade relations between the parties, is expected to take place soon.
05.02.2025