Ukraine is looking for new ways to export its products to bypass the blocked border with Poland. The country plans to use the Danube route, connecting Ukrainian ports with Constanța in Romania and German ports along the Danube.
What Risks Does This Pose for Poland?
- Reduced export volumes from Ukraine. Poland is one of Ukraine’s key trading partners, and redirecting export flows via the Danube could lead to significant losses for the Polish economy. According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy, trade turnover between Ukraine and Poland reached USD 11.3 billion in 2022, of which USD 7.2 billion represented Ukrainian exports to Poland.
- Increased competition. Ukrainian exporters may be able to offer more competitive prices for their products in the European market, potentially affecting Polish manufacturers.
- Loss of transit revenue. Poland generates substantial revenue from the transit of Ukrainian goods, and redirecting these flows via the Danube could result in lost income. According to Poland’s Central Statistical Office, approximately 20 million tonnes of Ukrainian goods transited through Poland in 2022.
At the Same Time, the New Route Offers Ukraine Several Advantages:
- Expanded export opportunities. The Danube route will allow Ukraine to diversify its export routes and reduce its dependence on the Polish border.
- Reduced risks. The blockade of the Polish border has demonstrated the vulnerability of Ukraine’s export routes. The Danube route could serve as an alternative for exporting Ukrainian products if further disruptions occur at the Polish border.
- Improved competitiveness. Ukraine will be able to export its products to EU countries through a shorter and more cost-effective route.
It is important to note that the new route does not pose a threat to Polish farmers. Ukraine will export not only agricultural products but also other goods, such as automotive parts and processed products.
The blockade of the Polish border is causing billions in losses for both Ukraine and the EU economy. Therefore, establishing a new export route via the Danube would benefit all parties.
The development of a new export route via the Danube has significant potential to support the Ukrainian economy, but it also presents risks for Poland. Ukraine and Poland need to cooperate to find a solution that benefits both countries.
